Key Findings

The midterm campaign season enters its final stretch after Labor Day—in the context of rising consumer prices and higher interest rates that have created financial turbulence and uncertainty about job growth. Meanwhile, Californians are feeling the impact of climate change: severe drought, heat waves, and wildfires. Recently passed federal and state legislation aims to address these issues ahead of the highly consequential November 8 election.

These are among the key findings of a statewide survey on state and national issues that was conducted from September 2 to 11 by the Public Policy Institute of California:

Californians name the economy and inflation as the top issue facing the state. Thirty-eight percent of Californians—and 50 percent of lower-income adults—report serious hardships from rising prices. Fifty percent say that things in California are going in the right direction. By comparison, 35 percent think things in the US are going in the right direction while 28 percent expect the US to have good times financially during the next 12 months. →
Among California likely voters, 58 percent would vote for Gavin Newsom and 31 percent would vote for Brian Dahle if the election were held today. Half are very or fairly closely following the news about the governor’s race this year. Fifty-three percent are satisfied with their choices of candidates in the governor’s race, with partisans divided. →
When likely voters are read the ballot title and labels, 69 percent would vote yes on Proposition 1 (constitutional abortion rights), 55 percent would vote yes on Proposition 30 (reducing greenhouse gases), and 34 percent would vote yes on Proposition 27 (online sports gambling). California likely voters are especially likely to say the outcome of Proposition 1 is very important to them; Democrats express this view far more often than Republicans or independents. →
Six in ten likely voters would support the Democratic candidate in their US House race if the election were today. Forty-three percent say that voting this year is more important than in past midterm elections; 52 percent of Republicans and 45 percent of Democrats hold this view. Sixty-three percent say it is more important to them that House candidates work with the Biden administration and 33 percent say it is more important to push back against the Biden administration, with partisans deeply divided. →
At the local level, 68 percent of Californians say that homelessness is a big problem in their part of the state while 61 percent say the presence of the homeless has increased in their local community in the past year. Thirty-one percent of Californians say that violence and street crime is a big problem in their local community, and 42 percent say that local violence and street crime has increased in the past 12 months. →
Majorities of California adults and likely voters approve of Governor Gavin Newsom, President Joe Biden, and their US House representative. About half of California adults and likely voters also approve of the state legislature and their own state legislators, while fewer than four in ten approve of the US Congress. These approval ratings vary across partisan groups. →

Top Issues and Overall Mood

When asked to name the most important issue facing the state today, about three in ten Californians mention jobs, the economy, or inflation (29%), while fewer mention homelessness (14%), housing costs and availability (11%), the environment (8%), or water and drought (8%).

The rate of inflation has remained relatively high even while gas prices have fallen in recent months. In this context, an overwhelming majority of Californians continue to say they are experiencing financial hardship due to rising prices. Findings were similar in May (35% serious hardship; 29% hardship, but not serious) and March (35% serious hardship; 32% hardship, but not serious). The share saying that financial hardship is serious is higher among Latinos and African Americans and declines sharply with rising household income and higher educational attainment. Republicans (58%) are more than twice as likely as Democrats (25%) and far more likely than independents (37%) to say they are experiencing serious hardship. Across regions, the share experiencing serious hardship is highest in the Central Valley (46%) and lowest in the San Francisco Bay Area (27%).

When asked about the general direction of the state, Californians are slightly more likely to be optimistic than pessimistic, with 50 percent saying the state is headed in the right direction (44% wrong direction). Likely voters are divided. In May, Californians were slightly more likely to be pessimistic than optimistic (50% wrong direction, 45% right direction). Today, residents in the Inland Empire are least optimistic and those in the San Francisco Bay Area are the most optimistic. There is a wide partisan divide: seven in ten Democrats (72%) are optimistic about the direction of the state, compared to fewer than half of independents (44%) and only one in ten Republicans (8%). Asian Americans (66%) are much more positive than African Americans (52%), Latinos (51%), and whites (43%) about the direction of the state.

While half of Californians are optimistic about the direction of the state, about one in three adults say the United States is headed in the right direction. Sentiments today are nearly identical to May (30% right direction, 63% wrong direction). There is widespread agreement on this: about four in ten or fewer across regions and demographic groups are optimistic. Across parties, Democrats are divided (47% each), while few Republicans and independents are optimistic. Twenty-eight percent of Californians say they expect good times financially for the United States in the next 12 months—similar to perceptions in May (22%). Four in ten or fewer Californians across parties, regions, and demographic groups expect good times.

Table: Few Californians are optimistic about the nation's direction and economic outlook

Gubernatorial Election

Half of likely voters say they are following news about the 2022 governor’s race very (17%) or fairly (33%) closely. More likely voters said this in September 2018, two months before the previous gubernatorial election (21% very, 41% fairly), and in September 2021 (40% very, 41% fairly), just prior to the special election on the recall of Governor Newsom. Today, more than four in ten across partisan groups and regions say they are following news about the gubernatorial election at least fairly closely, as do about half or more across demographic groups. Older likely voters (22% 45 and older) are three times as likely to say they are following the election very closely than are younger likely voters (7% 18 to 44). The share who are following the election very closely declines as educational attainment and income levels rise.

Democrat Gavin Newsom leads Republican Brian Dahle by a 27-point margin (58% to 31%) among likely voters, with about one in ten unsure of how they would vote (7%) or saying they would not vote in the race (5%) if the gubernatorial election were held today. Newsom enjoys the support of most Democrats (90%), while most Republicans (81%) support Dahle; independents favor Newsom (55% Newsom, 35% Dahle). Newsom receives majority support in the San Francisco Bay Area (72% Newsom, 20% Dahle) and Los Angeles (65% Newsom, 23% Dahle); likely voters in the Central Valley (50% Newsom, 42% Dahle), Orange/San Diego (46% Newsom, 40% Dahle), and the Inland Empire (41% Newsom, 38% Dahle) are divided. Newsom is favored across all age, gender, homeownership, income, and racial/ethnic groups; the share supporting Newsom increases as educational attainment rises (46% high school only; 56% some college; 66% college graduate).

A slim majority of likely voters (53%) are satisfied with their choices of candidates in the election for governor, while nearly four in ten are not satisfied (38%). Shares holding these views were similar prior to the 2018 gubernatorial election. Today, satisfaction is far higher among Democrats than among Republicans or independents. Regionally, satisfaction is highest among likely voters in the San Francisco Bay Area, followed by those in the Central Valley, Los Angeles, Orange/San Diego, and the Inland Empire. About half or more likely voters across education, gender, homeownership, income, and racial/ethnic groups are satisfied with their choices of candidates for governor. Older likely voters are much more likely to be satisfied with their choices, while younger likely voters are divided.

Table: A slim majority of likely voters are satisfied with their choices of candidates in the election for governor

State Propositions 1, 27, and 30

Voters will have their say on seven state propositions on the November ballot. Because of time constraints, our survey included only three higher-profile ballot measures: Propositions 1, 27, and 30. For each, we read the proposition number, ballot title, and ballot label.

If the election were held today, 69 percent of likely voters would vote “yes,” 25 percent would vote “no,” and 6 percent are unsure how they would vote on Proposition 1—the Constitutional Right to Reproductive Freedom. Placed on the ballot by the state legislature, this measure would amend the California Constitution to include the fundamental right to choose to have an abortion and the fundamental right to choose or refuse contraceptives. Strong majorities of Democrats (86%) and independents (67%) would vote “yes,” while 61 percent of Republicans would vote “no.” Majorities across the state’s major regions and demographic groups say they would vote “yes.”

If the election were held today, 34 percent of likely voters would vote “yes,” 54 percent would vote “no,” and 12 percent are unsure on Proposition 27—Allows Online and Mobile Sports Wagering Outside Tribal Lands. This citizens’ initiative would allow Indian tribes and affiliated businesses to operate online and mobile sports wagering outside tribal lands. Among partisans, a strong majority of Republicans would vote “no,” compared to half of Democrats and independents. Regionally, majorities in the Inland Empire, Orange/San Diego, and the San Francisco Bay Area would vote “no,” while likely voters in the Central Valley and Los Angeles are divided. At least half across most demographic groups would vote “no.” Likely voters age 18 to 44 (52%) and renters (51%) are the only two demographic groups with a slim majority voting “yes.”

If the election were held today, 55 percent of likely voters would vote “yes,” 40 percent would vote “no,” and 5 percent are unsure on Proposition 30—Provides Funding for Programs to Reduce Air Pollution and Prevent Wildfires by Increasing Tax on Personal Income Over $2 Million. This citizens’ initiative would increase taxes on Californians earning more than $2 million annually and allocate that tax revenue to zero-emission vehicle purchase incentives, vehicle charging stations, and wildfire prevention. A majority of Democrats and independents would vote “yes,” while an overwhelming majority of Republicans would vote “no.” Regionally, majorities in the Central Valley, Los Angeles, and the San Francisco Bay Area would vote “yes,” while most in the Inland Empire would vote “no”; likely voters in Orange/San Diego are divided. Half of more across age, education, gender, homeownership, and income groups would vote “yes.”

When asked how important the outcome of the vote on each of these three state propositions is to them, 61 percent of likely voters say the outcome of Prop 1 is very important; 42 percent say the same about Prop 30, while 29 percent say the outcome of Prop 27 is very important. An overwhelming majority of Democrats say the result of Prop 1 is very important, compared to about half of Republicans and independents. About half or more across regions as well as demographic groups hold this view. Fewer than four in ten across all regions and partisan and demographic groups think the outcome of Prop 27 is very important. The outcome of Prop 30 is very important to at least four in ten across partisan groups. Regionally, about half in Los Angeles and the San Francisco Bay Area say it is very important, compared to fewer likely voters elsewhere. While a third or more likely voters across all demographic groups hold this view, shares vary across subgroups.

Congressional Elections

When asked how they would vote if the 2022 election for the US House of Representatives were held today, 60 percent of likely voters say they would vote for or lean toward the Democratic candidate, while 34 percent would vote for or lean toward the Republican candidate. In May, likely voters preferred the Democratic candidate by a similar margin (55% Democrat/lean Democrat, 35% Republican/lean Republican). An overwhelming majority of partisans support their party’s candidate, while independents are more likely to prefer the Democratic candidate (58% Democrat/lean Democrat, 33% Republican/lean Republican). Democratic candidates are preferred by a 35-point margin in Democratic-held districts, while Republican candidates are preferred by an 8-point margin in Republican-held districts. In the ten competitive California districts as defined by the Cook Political Report, the Democratic candidate is preferred by a 16-point margin (51% to 35%).

When asked about the importance of voting this year compared to past midterm elections, 43 percent of likely voters say it is more important, while slightly more than half say voting is about as important as in past years; only 3 percent feel it is less important. Likely voters are as likely to say voting in this election is more important as they were in March 2022 (42%) but are less likely to say this than they were prior to the last midterm election in September 2018 (52%). Today, Republican likely voters (52%) are slightly more likely than Democrats (45%) and independents (37%) to say voting in this election is more important. Likely voters in Republican-held districts are much more likely than those in Democratic-held districts and those in competitive districts to say voting is more important.

Likely voters are far more likely to say they prefer US congressional candidates who are willing to work with the Biden administration (63%) rather than those who push back against the Biden administration (33%). In October 2018, likely voters were divided on whether candidates for US Congress should work with (45%) or push back against the Trump administration (48%). Today, partisan likely voters are divided: nine in ten Democrats prefer House candidates who would work with the Biden administration, while more than eight in ten Republicans prefer House candidates who push back against the Biden administration. About six in ten independents prefer that House candidates work with the Biden administration. Two in three likely voters in Democratic-held districts prefer House candidates who would work with Biden, while likely voters in Republican-held districts are divided (48% work with, 50% push back); nearly six in ten likely voters in competitive districts have a preference for a candidate working with (56%) rather than pushing back (37%).

Table: Most likely voters think it's more important that candidates for US Congress work with the Biden administration

Local Election Issues: Homelessness and Crime

Most Californians say homelessness is at least somewhat of a problem in their community, and strong majorities say it is a big problem (68% adults, 70% likely voters); one in ten adults and likely voters say it is not much of a problem. Seven in ten or more adults in Democratic congressional districts (71%) or competitive congressional districts (74%) say homelessness is a big problem, compared to a smaller majority in Republican congressional districts (58%).

About six in ten adults and likely voters say the presence of homeless people in their community has increased in the last year; about one in three say it has stayed the same, and few say it has decreased. The share noting an increase has remained similar since the first time PPIC asked this question in November 2019. Today, majorities of adults in all types of congressional districts say there has been an increase (62% Democratic congressional districts, 53% Republican congressional districts, 58% competitive congressional districts). Majorities across almost all partisan, age, education, gender, income, and racial/ethnic groups—with the exception of Asian Americans (48%) —hold this view. Residents in the Central Valley and Los Angeles are more likely than residents in other parts of California to say the presence of homeless people in their community has increased.

Nearly two in three adults and likely voters say crime and street violence are at least somewhat of a problem in their local community, including about three in ten who say it is a big problem (31% adults, 28% likely voters). The share of adults saying crime is a big problem was similar in February (34%). Forty percent of adults in competitive congressional districts see crime as a big problem (32% Democratic congressional district, 23% Republican congressional district).

About four in ten adults and likely voters say that violence and street crime has increased during the past year; slim majorities say it has stayed the same, and few say it has decreased. Among partisans, Democrats (60%) and independents (53%) are more likely to say it has stayed the same, while Republicans (60%) are more likely to say it has increased. Fewer than half of adults in competitive districts say there has been an increase (42% each in Democratic and Republican congressional districts, 44% in competitive districts). Fewer than half across age, education, gender, and income groups say this. More than four in ten across most regions note an increase—the exception is Orange/San Diego, where 27 percent say violence and street crime has increased. The share saying there has been an increase in local violence and street crime declines with rising education and increases with age.

Table: Californians are far more likely to say homelessness is a big problem than they are to say violence and street crime is a big problem

Approval Ratings

A majority of adults (52%) and likely voters (55%) approve of the way Governor Newsom is handling his job, while 35 percent of adults and 42 percent of likely voters disapprove. Approval was similar in September 2021 (53% adults and likely voters), and has been 50 percent or more since before the pandemic. Today, as in the past, there is a partisan divide. Majorities of Democrats and independents approve of Newsom, while most Republicans disapprove. Half of residents in competitive congressional districts approve of Newsom. About half or more across most demographic groups approve, with the exception of adults with some college education and whites (45% each). Across regions, majorities approve only in the San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles. Nearly half of adults and likely voters approve of the way the state legislature is handling its job, similar to a year ago.

A plurality of adults and likely voters approve of the job that the state legislators representing their assembly and senate districts are doing, with views among partisans deeply divided. About four in ten or more across demographic groups and regions approve.

Majorities of adults and likely voters (53% each) approve of the way President Biden is handling his job; 42 percent of adults and 46 percent likely voters disapprove. Approval is now similar to September 2021 (58% adults, 55% likely voters). Today, most Democrats approve, while most Republicans disapprove; independents are divided. About half or more across most demographic groups approve, with the exception of whites and adults with incomes of $40,000 to $79,999. Majorities of residents in the San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles approve, compared to fewer in other regions. Approval of President Biden is higher in California than at the national level: according to a Gallup poll conducted in August, 44 percent approve and 53 percent disapprove.

Thirty-nine percent of adults and 34 percent of likely voters approve of the US Congress; approval was similar a year ago (41% adults, 31% likely voters). Nationally, just 22 percent of adults approve of Congress and 76 percent disapprove, according to an August 2022 Gallup poll.

A majority of adults (54%) and likely voters (56%) approve of the way their US House representative is handling his or her job, with partisans deeply divided. Approval was nearly identical in September 2020 (55% adults, 56% likely voters). Today, about half or more across demographic groups approve, with the exception of 44 percent of adults with incomes of $40,000 to $79,999. About half or more across regions approve, with the exception of 42 percent in the Central Valley.

Table: Most Californians approve of Governor Newsom and President Biden

Regional Map

Methodology

The PPIC Statewide Survey is directed by Mark Baldassare, president and CEO and survey director at the Public Policy Institute of California. Coauthors of this report include survey analyst Rachel Lawler, who was the project manager for this survey; associate survey director and research fellow Dean Bonner; and survey analyst Deja Thomas. The Californians and Their Government survey is supported with funding from the Arjay and Frances F. Miller Foundation and the James Irvine Foundation. The PPIC Statewide Survey invites input, comments, and suggestions from policy and public opinion experts and from its own advisory committee, but survey methods, questions, and content are determined solely by PPIC’s survey team.

Findings in this report are based on a survey of 1,705 California adult residents, including 1,275 interviewed on cell phones and 430 interviewed on landline telephones. The sample included 567 respondents reached by calling back respondents who had previously completed an interview in PPIC Statewide Surveys in the last six months. Interviews took an average of 19 minutes to complete. Interviewing took place on weekend days and weekday nights from September 2–11, 2022.

Cell phone interviews were conducted using a computer-generated random sample of cell phone numbers. Additionally, we utilized a registration-based sample (RBS) of cell phone numbers for adults who are registered to vote in California. All cell phone numbers with California area codes were eligible for selection. After a cell phone user was reached, the interviewer verified that this person was age 18 or older, a resident of California, and in a safe place to continue the survey (e.g., not driving). Cell phone respondents were offered a small reimbursement to help defray the cost of the call. Cell phone interviews were conducted with adults who have cell phone service only and with those who have both cell phone and landline service in the household.

Landline interviews were conducted using a computer-generated random sample of telephone numbers that ensured that both listed and unlisted numbers were called. Additionally, we utilized a registration-based sample (RBS) of landline phone numbers for adults who are registered to vote in California. All landline telephone exchanges in California were eligible for selection. After a household was reached, an adult respondent (age 18 or older) was randomly chosen for interviewing using the “last birthday method” to avoid biases in age and gender.

For both cell phones and landlines, telephone numbers were called as many as eight times. When no contact with an individual was made, calls to a number were limited to six. Also, to increase our ability to interview Asian American adults, we made up to three additional calls to phone numbers estimated by Survey Sampling International as likely to be associated with Asian American individuals.

Live landline and cell phone interviews were conducted by Abt Associates in English and Spanish, according to respondents’ preferences. Accent on Languages, Inc., translated new survey questions into Spanish, with assistance from Renatta DeFever.

Abt Associates uses the US Census Bureau’s 2016–2020 American Community Survey’s (ACS) Public Use Microdata Series for California (with regional coding information from the University of Minnesota’s Integrated Public Use Microdata Series for California) to compare certain demographic characteristics of the survey sample—region, age, gender, race/ethnicity, and education—with the characteristics of California’s adult population. The survey sample was closely comparable to the ACS figures. To estimate landline and cell phone service in California, Abt Associates used 2019 state-level estimates released by the National Center for Health Statistics—which used data from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) and the ACS. The estimates for California were then compared against landline and cell phone service reported in this survey. We also used voter registration data from the California Secretary of State to compare the party registration of registered voters in our sample to party registration statewide. The landline and cell phone samples were then integrated using a frame integration weight, while sample balancing adjusted for differences across region, age, gender, race/ethnicity, education, telephone service, and party registration groups.

The sampling error, taking design effects from weighting into consideration, is ± 3.9 percent at the 95 percent confidence level for the total unweighted sample of 1,705 adults. This means that 95 times out of 100, the results will be within 3.9 percentage points of what they would be if all adults in California were interviewed. The sampling error for unweighted subgroups is larger: for the 1,442 registered voters, the sampling error is ± 4.4 percent; for the 1,060 likely voters, it is ± 5.4 percent. For the sampling errors of additional subgroups, please see the table at the end of this section. Sampling error is only one type of error to which surveys are subject. Results may also be affected by factors such as question wording, question order, and survey timing.

We present results for five geographic regions, accounting for approximately 90 percent of the state population. “Central Valley” includes Butte, Colusa, El Dorado, Fresno, Glenn, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, Placer, Sacramento, San Joaquin, Shasta, Stanislaus, Sutter, Tehama, Tulare, Yolo, and Yuba Counties. “San Francisco Bay Area” includes Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, and Sonoma Counties. “Los Angeles” refers to Los Angeles County, “Inland Empire” refers to Riverside and San Bernardino Counties, and “Orange/San Diego” refers to Orange and San Diego Counties. Residents of other geographic areas are included in the results reported for all adults, registered voters, and likely voters, but sample sizes for these less-populous areas are not large enough to report separately. We also present results for congressional districts currently held by Democrats or Republicans, based on residential zip code and party of the local US House member. We analyze the results of those who live in competitive house districts as determined by the Cook Political Report’s 2022 House Race Ratings updated September 1, 2022. These districts are 3, 9, 13, 22, 27, 40, 41, 45, 47, 49; a map of California’s congressional districts can be found here.

We present results for non-Hispanic whites, who account for 41 percent of the state’s adult population, and also for Latinos, who account for about a third of the state’s adult population and constitute one of the fastest-growing voter groups. We also present results for non-Hispanic Asian Americans, who make up about 16 percent of the state’s adult population, and non-Hispanic African Americans, who comprise about 6 percent. Results for other racial/ethnic groups—such as Native Americans—are included in the results reported for all adults, registered voters, and likely voters, but sample sizes are not large enough for separate analysis. Results for African American and Asian American likely voters are combined with those of other racial/ethnic groups because sample sizes for African American and Asian American likely voters are too small for separate analysis. We compare the opinions of those who report they are registered Democrats, registered Republicans, and no party preference or decline-to-state or independent voters; the results for those who say they are registered to vote in other parties are not large enough for separate analysis. We also analyze the responses of likely voters—so designated per their responses to survey questions about voter registration, previous election participation, intentions to vote this year, attention to election news, and current interest in politics.

The percentages presented in the report tables and in the questionnaire may not add to 100 due
to rounding.

Numerous questions were adapted from national surveys by Gallup, Monmouth University, and the Pew Research Center. Additional details about our methodology can be found at www.ppic.org/wp-content/uploads/SurveyMethodology.pdf and are available upon request through surveys@ppic.org.

Methodology

The percentages presented in the report tables and in the questionnaire may not add to 100 due
to rounding.

fallback image - Unweighted N Size and Margin of Error

Questions and Responses

September 2–11, 2022
1,705 California adult residents; 1,060 California likely voters
English, Spanish

Margin of error ± 3.9% at 95% confidence level for the total sample, ± 5.4% for likely voters.
Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

1. First, thinking about the state as a whole, what do you think is the most important issue facing people in California today? [code, don’t read]

29% economy, jobs, inflation
14% homelessness
11% housing costs, housing availability
8% environment, pollution, climate change
8% water availability, drought
4% gasoline prices, oil prices
3% crime, gangs, drugs
3% government in general, problems with elected officials, political parties
2% education, schools, teachers
2% electricity costs, energy supply
2% immigration, illegal immigration
2% state budget, deficit, spending
10% other (specify)
2% don’t know

2. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Gavin Newsom is handling his job as governor of California?

52% approve
35% disapprove
13% don’t know

3. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that the California Legislature is handling its job?

49% approve
39% disapprove
12% don’t know

4. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job that the state legislators representing your assembly and senate districts are doing at this time?

48% approve
38% disapprove
13% don’t know

5. Do you think things in California are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction?

50% right direction
44% wrong direction
6% don’t know

6. Have recent price increases caused any financial hardships for you or others in your household, or not? (If yes, ask: “Has that been a serious hardship, or not?”)

38% yes, serious
33% yes, not serious
29% no
1% don’t know

7. Next, some people are registered to vote and others are not. Are you absolutely certain that you are registered to vote in California?

75% yes [ask q7a]
25% no [skip to q7b]

7a. Are you registered as a Democrat, a Republican, another party, or are you registered as a decline-to-state or independent voter?

47% Democrat [ask q8]
24% Republican [ask q8a]
6% another party (specify) [skip to q9]
23% decline-to-state/independent [skip to 8b]

[likely voters only]
47% Democrat [ask q8]
25% Republican [ask q8a]
9% another party (specify) [skip to q9]
20% decline-to-state/independent [skip to 8b]

8. Would you call yourself a strong Democrat or not a very strong Democrat?

56% strong
42% not very strong
2% don’t know

[skip to q9]

8a. Would you call yourself a strong Republican or not a very strong Republican?

66% strong
31% not very strong
4% don’t know

[skip to q9]

8b. Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or Democratic Party?

20% Republican Party
45% Democratic Party
25% neither (volunteered)
10% don’t know

[DELAYED SKIP: IF party=6, 8, or 9, SKIP TO Q23]

9. [likely voters only] If the November 8th election for governor were being held today, would you vote for [rotate] [1] Brian Dahle, a Republican, [or] [2] Gavin Newsom, a Democrat?

31% Brian Dahle, a Republican
58% Gavin Newsom, a Democrat
5% neither/would not vote for governor (volunteered)
7% don’t know

10. [likely voters only] How closely are you following news about candidates for the 2022 governor’s election—very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not at all closely?

17% very closely
33% fairly closely
35% not too closely
15% not at all closely
– don’t know

11. [likely voters only] In general, would you say you are satisfied or not satisfied with your choices of candidates in the election for governor on November 8th?

53% satisfied
38% not satisfied
9% don’t know

Changing topics,

12. [likely voters only] Is voting this year more important to you than in past midterm elections, less important, or about the same?

43% more important
3% less important
54% about the same
– don’t know

13. [likely voters only] If the 2022 election for US House of Representatives were being held today, would you vote for [rotate] [1] the Republican candidate [or] [2] the Democratic candidate in your district? (ask if ‘other’ or ‘don’t know’: “As of today, do you lean more toward [read in same order as above] [1] the Republican candidate [or] [2] the Democratic candidate?”)

34% Republican/lean Republican
60% Democrat/lean Democrat
7% don’t know

14. [likely voters only] Which of the following is more important to you in candidates for US Congress—[rotate] (1) that they work with the Biden Administration [or] (2) that they push back against the Biden Administration?

63% work with the Biden Administration
33% push back against the Biden Administration
1% both (volunteered)
2% don’t know

Next, we have a few questions to ask you about some of the propositions on the November ballot.

15. [likely voters only] Proposition 1 is called the Constitutional Right to Reproductive Freedom. Legislative Constitutional Amendment. It amends the California Constitution to include the fundamental right to choose to have an abortion and the fundamental right to choose or refuse contraceptives. This amendment does not narrow or limit the existing rights to privacy and equal protection under California’s Constitution. There is no direct fiscal effect because reproductive rights are already protected by state law. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 1?

69% yes
25% no
6% don’t know

16. [likely voters only] How important to you is the outcome of the vote on Proposition 1—is it very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important?

61% very important
24% somewhat important
10% not too important
3% not at all important
2% don’t know

17. [likely voters only] As you may know, the US Supreme Court recently ended the constitutional right to abortion by overturning Roe v. Wade. In general, do you think it is mostly a good thing or mostly a bad thing to have a legislative constitutional amendment on the November ballot for California voters to decide on abortion rights at the state level?

70% good thing
23% bad thing
2% mixed (volunteered)
4% don’t know

18. [likely voters only] In general, do you think abortion should be [rotate order top to bottom] legal in all cases, legal in most cases, illegal in most cases, or illegal in all cases?

42% legal in all cases
33% legal in most cases
16% illegal in most cases
7% illegal in all cases
2% don’t know

Next,

19. [likely voters only] Proposition 27 is called Allows Online and Mobile Sports Wagering Outside Tribal Lands. Initiative Constitutional Amendment. It allows Indian tribes and affiliated businesses to operate online and mobile sports wagering outside tribal lands. It directs revenues to regulatory costs, homelessness programs, and nonparticipating tribes. The fiscal impact is increased state revenues, possibly in the hundreds of millions of dollars but not likely to exceed $500 million annually. Some revenues would support state regulatory costs, possibly reaching the mid-tens of millions of dollars annually. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 27?

34% yes
54% no
12% don’t know

20. [likely voters only] How important to you is the outcome of the vote on Proposition 27—is it very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important?

29% very important
38% somewhat important
21% not too important
9% not at all important
3% don’t know

21. [likely voters only] Proposition 30 is called Provides Funding for Programs to Reduce Air Pollution and Prevent Wildfires by Increasing Tax on Personal Income Over $2 Million. Initiative Statute. It allocates tax revenues to zero-emission vehicle purchase incentives, vehicle charging stations, and wildfire prevention. The fiscal impact is increased state tax revenue ranging from $3.5 billion to $5 billion annually, with the new funding used to support zero-emission vehicle programs and wildfire response and prevention activities. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 30?

55% yes
40% no
5% don’t know

22. [likely voters only] How important to you is the outcome of the vote on Proposition 30—is it very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important?

42% very important
38% somewhat important
13% not too important
4% not at all important
2% don’t know

Next,

23. How much confidence do you have in the system in which votes are cast and counted in California elections—a great deal, quite a lot, some, or very little?

38% great deal
14% quite a lot
20% some
23% very little
3% none (volunteered)
2% don’t know

24. How concerned are you that it is too easy for people who are not eligible to vote in California elections? Are you very concerned, somewhat concerned, not too concerned, or not at all concerned?

25% very concerned
24% somewhat concerned
21% not too concerned
28% not at all concerned
2% don’t know

25. Overall, how confident are you that the 2020 election was conducted fairly and accurately: very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident?

48% very confident
23% somewhat confident
11% not too confident
15% not at all confident
2% don’t know

Changing topics,

26. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Joe Biden is handling his job as president?

53% approve
42% disapprove
4% don’t know

27. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. Congress is handling its job?

39% approve
55% disapprove
6% don’t know

28. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way your own representative to the U.S. House of Representatives in Congress is handling his or her job?

54% approve
35% disapprove
11% don’t know

Next,

29. Do you think things in the United States are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction?

35% right direction
59% wrong direction
6% don’t know

30. Turning to economic conditions, do you think that during the next 12 months the United States will have good times financially or bad times?

28% good times
66% bad times
7% don’t know

Changing topics,

31. How much of a problem is homelessness in your part of California? Is it a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not much of a problem?

68% big problem
21% somewhat of a problem
10% not much of a problem
1% don’t know

32. In the last 12 months, do you think that the presence of homeless people in your local community has increased, decreased or stayed about the same?

61% increased
3% decreased
34% stayed the same
2% don’t know

On another topic,

33. How much of a problem are violence and street crime in your local community today? Is it a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not much of a problem?

31% big problem
33% somewhat of a problem
35% not much of a problem
1% don’t know

34. In the last 12 months, do you think that violence and street crime in your local community has increased, decreased, or stayed about the same?

42% increased
4% decreased
53% stayed the same
1% don’t know

35. Next, would you consider yourself to be politically: [read list, rotate order top to bottom]

16% very liberal
21% somewhat liberal
28% middle-of-the-road
19% somewhat conservative
12% very conservative
3% don’t know

36. Generally speaking, how much interest would you say you have in politics—a great deal, a fair amount, only a little, or none?

28% great deal
35% fair amount
30% only a little
7% none
– don’t know

[d1–d15 demographic questions]